Algerian situation report July 31, 2013

ALGERIA MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT

July 31, 2013


Executive Summary
Political Trends

· President Bouteflika has returned to spend the rest of Ramadan in Algeria, but his condition seems if anything worse than when PM Sellal and CoS Gaïd Saleh visited him in Paris in June.

· A fortnight after Bouteflika’s return, no Council of Ministers meeting has been convened it is still unclear when this will be possible.

· Nonetheless, there are signs that the decision has been taken to keep Bouteflika on until the presidential election scheduled next April, if only to buy more time for the establishment to manage the unforeseen situation created by his health problems.

· Although there have been hints that former PM Ouyahia again has the favours of DRS chief Tewfik, there still seems to be no consensus candidate of the entire military-security establishment.
Foreign Relations

· The official message of greetings issued by the Algerian Presidency on the anniversary of King Mohamed VI’s accession to the throne is surprisingly laudatory, suggesting that some in Algiers may want to contain the escalating war of words with Rabat.

· The conciliatory letter to Mohamed VI came a few days after PM Sellal slapped down Moroccan irredentists in a speech in Tindouf, in which he also announced that Algeria intends to develop alone the massive Gara Djebilet iron ore deposit near the contested border.

· Drug trafficking from Morocco has been declared “a new form of terrorism” and Algeria’s “number one security threat”, while the smuggling of Algerian refined products to Morocco and other neighbouring countries is also being highlighted as a major security and economic problem.

· On the eastern borders, in addition to smuggling of refined products, the presence of jihadist groups in Tunisia and Libya is a growing problem, prompting an unprecedented military mobilisation along the border with Tunisia. At the same time, Tunisian media close to the ruling Ennahda party have been trying to blame Algeria’s DRS for the country’s worsening security.
Security

· There has been no uptick in jihadist activity for Ramadan this year, but there has been a marked shift towards the use of explosives by AQMI instead of ambushes, road blocks, etc.

· While Algiers has remained quiet, small scale clashes have continued in the oil and gas producing south, with the more offensive jihadist operations still concentrated on the eastern borders.

· The Ministry of Energy is said to be considering building an airstrip at Tiguentourine to save expatriate workers from having to travel by road from In Amenas.

· To take account of the shifting security situation, the military authorities are reported to be considering establishing a 7th Military Region for the south-east, based at Illizi.

Political Trends



On July 16, some 82 days after he was flown to France for treatment following a stroke, President Bouteflika finally returned to Algeria. Pictured on arrival at Boufarik air base in a wheelchair, the President seemed, if anything, in an even weaker state than he had appeared in photographs and video released a month previously while he was still undergoing therapy at the Institution Nationale des Invalides in Paris, and once again TV images were broadcast without sound, suggesting that his voice (and perhaps even his mental faculties) may have been impaired. A curt communiqué from the Presidency informed the public that the head of state would be observing a period of “rest and rehabilitation”, of unspecified length.