Gabriel WS report2

The information contained in this report has not been corroborate by third party sources and therefore its accuracy cannot be verified.





WESTERN SAHARA

18/05/12



According to a Moroccan personality, close to the Palace:



During the French presidential election, the Benkirane government sounded out the Hollande camp in order to seek reassurances that, if the left were to win, French support for Morocco would continue unaltered. There were direct contacts with Pierre Moscovici, a senior member of the Socialist Party leadership who is close to Hollande. Moscovici suggested that French policy towards Morocco (and in particular support for Rabat’s autonomy plan) would probably remain largely unchanged, but stressed that nothing could be confirmed 100% until after the second round of voting (May 6).

Immediately after Hollande’s victory in the second round, but before the constitution of the new Socialist-led government, Foreign Minister Othmani travelled to Paris to meet Moscovici for further information on the positions of the incoming administration. Othmani was at that stage convinced that Moscovici himself would get the Foreign Affairs portfolio.

A wave of panic ran through the Benkirane government when the make-up of the new government was finally announced on May 16, with Laurent Fabius as Foreign Minister. Benkirane sees Fabius[1], like Hollande himself, as a pure product of the Mitterrand era – and as such capable of reverting to Mitterrand’s regional policy, seen as less favourable to Morocco and its claim to Western Sahara than that of successive right-wing administrations.

It was specifically in order to sound out the incoming Socialist government and test its reactions that the Benkirane government has “withdrawn confidence” in Christopher Ross, in belated reaction to the UN Secretary General’s last report (dated April 24).

However, rather than calming their jittery nerves, the French reaction has alarmed Benkirane and Othmani all the more. Even though the position stated by the Quai d’Orsay was essentially the same as before, the statement was made by Foreign Ministry spokesman Bernard Valéro, who has been in the job for years, rather than by Fabius – and it was Fabius that Benkirane wanted to hear. The Paris correspondent of Maghreb Arabe Presse has been instructed by his superiors in Rabat to interview Fabius on the incoming government’s Morocco policy, but has not yet managed to do so. In the meantime, Benkirane and Othmani are convinced that France’s new Socialist government will be more reserved towards Morocco and more open towards Algeria than was the case under Sarkozy.

At the Palace, on the other hand, there is no panic or particular concern. Indeed, the King’s advisors on the Western Sahara question have been exchanging sarcastic Tweets about Benkirane and Othmani’s panic attacks (!). The Palace knew in advance that, once elected, Hollande would not deviate from France’s traditional stance on the Sahara and support for Morocco’s territorial integrity.
King Mohamed VI, for his part, has been spending an extended holiday with his mother in Paris.





According to a member of Polisario’s National Secretariat:



The victory of Hollande, and the make-up of the new Socialist-led government, could augur a break with the policy of unconditional support for Morocco adopted by the outgoing Sarkozy government. Polisario has been in touch with its friends in France, in particular those who are close to the Socialists, to explore such a possibility, and all have confirmed that French Maghreb policy will have to be a put on a new and more balanced footing.

Polisario’s French friends claim that unconditional support for Morocco will no longer be considered appropriate, and that human rights issues will emerge as an important element of France’s Maghreb policy. The islamist wave in North Africa will be judged on its degree of integration into a democratic process that respects human rights and the rights of peoples. The Sahara question will be an integral part of this policy of support for democracy and human rights in the Maghreb.





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[1] Fabius is also known to have firm friendships in Algiers, and none such in Rabat.